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Rate hikes divide housing market: Almost one in two capital city suburbs hit record high

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Amidst Australia’s historic two-year rate hike cycle, the property market has become a picture of resilience and decline, showcasing stark contrasts across cities, suburbs, and regions.

A CoreLogic Australia analysis comparing the property market’s performance two years before and after the rate hike cycle reveals that home values across the nation have risen only 2.8% since April 2022, contrasting sharply with the substantial 31.7% increase observed in the preceding two years.

CoreLogic Research Director Tim Lawless said the relatively small capital gain over the past two years is a legacy of the -7.5% drop in national values during the early phase of the rate hiking cycle when the national index consistently fell between May 2022 and January 2023.

Since CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index bottomed out in Jan 2023, values have risen every month to be 11.1% higher.

”The perception might be that property values are continually increasing but we can’t forget the short and very sharp downturn that occurred in the immediate aftermath of the first rate increases,” he said.

“Since the market bottomed there’s been 15 consecutive monthly increases in values nationally, but that performance is not indicative of the entire market. Underneath the headline figure there’s significant diversity in the housing market’s performance.”

The percentage change in housing values through the rate hiking cycle to April 2024 ranges from a 25.7% surge in Perth house values, to an -11.2% drop in Hobart house values. In Sydney, house values have increased 0.4% in the past two years compared to Melbourne where houses are now -4.2% more affordable than they were in April 2022.

“Such a discrepancy in growth rates highlights the diversity of market conditions over the past two years. This reflects the complexity within local markets. While some cities have exhibited resilience driven by robust economic fundamentals and housing demand, others such as Melbourne, Hobart and Canberra, where housing is more affordable now compared to two years ago, have grappled with factors such higher supply, affordability constraints and weaker demographic trends,” Mr Lawless said

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